Risks from Fossil Fuels

Trevor Craig

Energy Science 110

Risks from Fossil Fuels 17

11/8/11           

This lecture was about possible risks that we take when we burn fossil fuels and looking at possible disasters that can affect our lives. By burning so many fossil fuels we are increasing our chances of risks in our world which all affect us more or less depending on the region, but all affect us negatively.

One risk from burning so many fossil fuels is increase in flooding. There is an increase in rain all over the United States; this can be seen especially in places like Montana where in 2011 they had 3x normal rain fall in a 3 month period and 4-8x normal rain fall in a 1 month period. These trends of more rain fall can be seen all over the United States, and partially because of more water and an increase of sea temperatures we see an increase of hurricanes. Hurricanes are also becoming worse because of an increase in sea level, sea levels are rising because of a melting of glaciers and the glaciers are melting because of an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, in 2006 there was about 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere and in 2100 there could be anywhere from 535 to 983 ppm.

When there is an increase in CO2 there is an increase of temperature on the earth causing droughts in places that are no longer getting the same amount of water any more. Big increases of temperature can be seen in places like Europe where they experienced temperatures that where 3.5C above normal in 2003.

Air quality has been a problem for many years and will just continue to get worse from increase in burning of fossil fuels, for example even back in 1966 in New York City smog was a problem causing 169 deaths. Water quality also becomes a concern when there is an increase of oil use because it can seep into our aquifers. Terrorism may also increase over oil, and with wars and an increase in the price of oil it will affect jobs, when oil prices go high and low our economy feels recessions. This is a problem because 90% of oil is produced by NOC countries that have 75% of oil reserves.

Fossil fuels are what are making us take many risks, we need to move away from them and try and reduce our risks.

Issue	Impact	Probability	Risk
Flooding	6	8	48
Hurricanes	7	8	56
Sea Level Rise	0	5	0
Heat	5	8	40
Air Quality	2	6	12
Water Quality	3	5	15
Terrorism	8	3	24

Flooding is really damaging but can be planned against, but is very likely to happen.

Hurricanes cause a lot of damage and there is not much to do to stop them, they are likely to happen.

Sea level rising will not affect us greatly because it is so slow and can plan against it, it is not overly likely, can transfer water fairly easily.

Heat effects land and animals but there is always different land, and it is likely.

Air quality will not be a huge impact for the US because we plan against it so much, and it is likely that it will get worse but not overly.

Water quality would be bad if it went down but we have multiple different sources of water and we can purify it, the probability isn’t too likely that it will be a problem.

Terrorism is really bad when they attack important things but it unlikely due to our increased security and because they don’t attack that often.

Maritime- Connected with the sea, esp. in relation to seafaring commercial or military activity.

Arbitrary- Based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system.

ENSC110 Craig Risks From Fossil Fuels 17